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Britain is on course to ending up being a 'second tier' European country like Spain or Italy due to financial decrease and a weak armed force that undermines its effectiveness to allies, a specialist has cautioned.

Research teacher Dr Azeem Ibrahim OBE concluded in a damning new report that the U.K. has been paralysed by low financial investment, high tax and misdirected policies that might see it lose its standing as a top-tier middle power at present growth rates.

The plain evaluation weighed that succeeding federal government failures in regulation and drawing in investment had caused Britain to miss out on the 'industries of the future' courted by established economies.

'Britain no longer has the industrial base to logistically sustain a war with a near-peer like Russia for more than 2 months,' he wrote in The Henry Jackson Society's most current report, Strategic Prosperity: The Case for Economic Growth as a National Security Priority.

The report assesses that Britain is now on track to fall behind Poland in terms of per capita earnings by 2030, which the central European country's armed force will soon exceed the U.K.'s along lines of both manpower and devices on the current trajectory.

'The concern is that once we are devalued to a 2nd tier middle power, it's going to be practically impossible to return. Nations don't come back from this,' Dr Ibrahim informed MailOnline today.

'This is going to be sped up decline unless we nip this in the bud and have bold leaders who have the ability to make the tough choices right now.'

People pass boarded up shops on March 20, 2024 in Hastings, England

A British soldier refills his rifle on February 17, 2025 in Smardan, Romania

Staff Sergeant Rai utilizes a radio to speak with Archer crews from 19th Regiment Royal Artillery during a live fire variety on Rovajärvi Training Area, during Exercise Dynamic Front, Finland

Dr Ibrahim welcomed the federal government's choice to increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP from April 2027, however alerted much deeper, systemic issues threaten to irreversibly knock the U.K. from its position as a globally prominent power.

With a weakening commercial base, Britain's usefulness to its allies is now 'falling behind even second-tier European powers', he warned.

Why WW3 is already here ... and how the UK will need to lead in America's absence

'Not only is the U.K. forecasted to have a lower GDP per capita than Poland by 2030, however also a smaller sized army and one that is not able to sustain deployment at scale.'

This is of specific issue at a time of increased geopolitical stress, with Britain pegged to be among the leading forces in Europe's rapid rearmament task.

'There are 230 brigades in Ukraine right now, Russian and Ukrainian. Not a single European nation to mount a single heavy armoured brigade.'

'This is a huge oversight on the part of subsequent governments, not just Starmer's issue, of failing to buy our military and basically outsourcing security to the United States and NATO,' he told MailOnline.

'With the U.S. getting tiredness of providing the security umbrella to Europe, Europe now needs to base on its own and the U.K. would have been in a premium position to actually lead European defence. But none of the European nations are.'

Slowed defence costs and patterns of low productivity are absolutely nothing brand-new. But Britain is now likewise 'failing to adjust' to the Trump administration's jolt to the rules-based global order, stated Dr Ibrahim.

The former consultant to the 2021 Integrated Defence and Security Review kept in mind in the report that in spite of the 'weakening' of the organizations when 'protected' by the U.S., Britain is responding by hurting the last vestiges of its military might and economic power.

The U.K., he said, 'appears to be making progressively expensive gestures' like the ₤ 9bn handover of the strategic Chagos Islands and opening talks on reparations for Caribbean Slavery.

The surrender of the Chagos Islands in the Indian Ocean has actually been the source of much analysis.

Negotiations between the U.K. and Mauritius were begun by the Tories in 2022, but a contract was announced by the Labour federal government last October.

Dr Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute defence and security believe thank alerted at the time that 'the relocation demonstrates stressing tactical ineptitude in a world that the U.K. federal government refers to as being characterised by excellent power competition'.

Require the U.K. to provide reparations for its historical role in the slave trade were rekindled likewise in October last year, though Sir Keir Starmer said ahead of a conference of Commonwealth countries that reparations would not be on the agenda.

A Challenger 2 primary fight tank of the British forces throughout the NATO's Spring Storm workout in Kilingi-Nomme, Estonia, Wednesday, May 15, 2024

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk speak throughout a press conference in Warsaw, Poland, January 17, 2025

Dr Ibhramin assessed that the U.K. seems to be acting versus its own security interests in part due to a narrow understanding of threat.

'We understand soldiers and missiles but fail to totally develop of the threat that having no alternative to China's supply chains might have on our ability to react to military hostility.'

He suggested a brand-new security design to 'enhance the U.K.'s tactical dynamism' based on a rethink of migratory policy and danger assessment, access to uncommon earth minerals in a market dominated by China, and the prioritisation of energy security and self-reliance by means of investment in North Sea gas and a long-overdue rethink on nuclear energy.

'Without instant policy changes to reignite development, Britain will end up being a decreased power, reliant on stronger allies and susceptible to foreign coercion,' the Diplomacy writer stated.

'As international economic competition intensifies, the U.K. must choose whether to embrace a strong growth program or resign itself to irreversible decrease.'

Britain's commitment to the concept of Net Zero might be admirable, but the pursuit will hinder development and odd tactical objectives, he alerted.

'I am not saying that the environment is not crucial. But we simply can not afford to do this.

'We are a country that has actually stopped working to purchase our economic, in our energy facilities. And we have considerable resources at our disposal.'

Nuclear power, consisting of the usage of small modular reactors, might be a boon for the British economy and energy self-reliance.

'But we have actually failed to commercialise them and obviously that's going to take a considerable amount of time.'

Britain did present a brand-new funding model for nuclear power stations in 2022, which lobbyists including Labour politicians had firmly insisted was essential to discovering the cash for expensive plant-building jobs.

While Innovate UK, Britain's development company, has been declared for its grants for little energy-producing business in your home, business owners have cautioned a larger culture of 'threat hostility' in the U.K. stifles investment.

In 2022, earnings for the poorest 14 million people fell by 7.5%, per the ONS. Pictured: Waterlooville High Street, Waterlooville, Hants

Undated file picture of The British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT) or Chagos Islands

Britain has actually consistently failed to acknowledge the looming 'authoritarian risk', enabling the trend of managed decrease.

But the renewal of autocracies on the world phase threats even more undermining the rules-based worldwide order from which Britain 'benefits immensely' as a globalised economy.

'The risk to this order ... has established partially due to the fact that of the lack of a robust will to safeguard it, owing in part to ponder foreign efforts to subvert the acknowledgment of the real lurking hazard they present.'

The alerting to NATO allies in Europe that they will have to do their own bidding has actually gone some way towards waking Britain approximately the urgency of purchasing defence.

But Dr Ibrahim cautioned that this is insufficient. He urged a top-down reform of 'basically our entire state' to bring the ossified state back to life and sustain it.

'Reforming the well-being state, reforming the NHS, reforming pensions - these are essentially bodies that use up immense quantities of funds and they'll just keep growing substantially,' he told MailOnline.

'You could double the NHS spending plan and it will truly not make much of a damage. So all of this will require essential reform and will take a great deal of courage from whomever is in power because it will make them unpopular.'

The report lays out recommendations in radical tax reform, pro-growth migration policies, and a restored focus on protecting Britain's function as a leader in high-tech industries, energy security, and global trade.

Vladimir Putin consults with the governor of Arkhangelsk area Alexander Tsybulsky during their meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, Tuesday, March 11, 2025

File picture. Britain's economic stagnancy might see it soon become a '2nd tier' partner

Boarded-up stores in Blackpool as more than 13,000 stores closed their doors for good in 2024

Britain is not alone in falling back. The Trump administration's insistence that Europe pay for its own defence has cast fresh light on the Old Continent's alarming scenario after decades of sluggish development and minimized spending.

The Centre for Economic Policy Research evaluated at the end of in 2015 that Euro area financial performance has been 'controlled' given that around 2018, showing 'diverse obstacles of energy dependency, producing vulnerabilities, and moving global trade characteristics'.

There remain extensive inconsistencies in between European economies; German deindustrialisation has struck businesses tough and forced redundancies, while Spain has grown in line with its tourism-focused economy.

This stays vulnerable, however, with residents progressively upset by the viewed pandering to foreign visitors as they are evaluated of budget friendly accommodation and trapped in low paying seasonal jobs.

The Henry Jackson Society is a diplomacy and nationwide security believe thank based in the United Kingdom.

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